Bitcoin is in the horizontal trend! When is the end of the correction?
Last Friday, the information about the suspension of gas supplies from Russia to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline contributed to considerable volatility in the global financial markets. In reaction to this news, the US dollar gained significantly, and the stock markets in Germany and the US collapsed.
The strong correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices explains the cryptocurrency market’s sell-off.
Looking at Bitcoin’s quotes, we notice that its price has been moving horizontally (in consolidation) for some time, remaining below the previously defeated support (now resistance) of $ 20,800.
- Bitcoin is in a downward trend,
- consolidations are corrective formations,
- the closest resistance coincides with the measurement of the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the previous downward impulse,
- the US Federal Reserve is likely to continue the cycle of aggressive monetary policy tightening in the near future, to reduce liquidity through interest rate hikes and curb the highest consumer inflation in over 40 years (CPI),
It seems highly probable that the BTC price will soon slide towards at least USD 19,000. However, a more profound drop below this level cannot be ruled out.
Looking at the Ethereum quotations, we notice that the price of this cryptocurrency fell between August 26 and 28 by over 17%, increasing the range of the depreciation lasting from August 14 to nearly 30%.
This sell-off caused the ETH price to slide below $ 1,780 technical support, then below $ 1,580, and only stop in the region of $ 1,400, where there was a demand response.
However, the subsequent uptrend turned out to be relatively short-lived; as a result, the market stopped near the nearest resistance of USD 1,580 and has been consolidating there for about a week.
It is worth noting that the first (so far only minor) supply reactions have already appeared around this level. If this zone is rejected, ETH quotes could return to the downward path and slide down to USD 1,250.
The following speaks in favour of the implementation of such a scenario:
- strong correlation between ETH and BTC,
- The currently tested resistance coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement measurement from an earlier downward impulse.
- low RSI reading (below 46) indicates weak demand
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
After a fall in technical support of $ 112, Bitcoin Cash rebounded. These increases, however, turned out to be only temporary. For over a week, the BCH rate has remained in a narrow consolidation between the support at USD 112 and the resistance in the region of USD 120.
Considering that this trend may only be a temporary correction after an earlier decline, it seems highly probable that after rebounding from the currently tested resistance, BCH will return to USD 112 or even fall to the July lows of USD 97.
Looking at Solana’s quotations, we notice that the cryptocurrency has been moving from mid-June inside the bullish wedge formation. The last increases stopped in mid-August this year, near the upper limit of this system, where a supply reaction appeared again.
The subsequent declines caused the SOL price to drop by almost 38%, breaking the bottom out of the wedge formation and beating the horizontal support of $ 32.50.
The market has been consolidating for over a week, keeping slightly below this resistance. Given that the consolidations are corrective patterns, this level is more likely to be rejected, and the SOL rate will return to a downward path, heading towards $ 26. It is only there that the following technical support, determined based on the lows from mid-June this year, is available.
The cryptocurrency Polygon fell by more than 28% between August 14 and August 20 this year, slipping below the upward trend line and technical support of $ 0.85. This sell-off stopped around the following support in the $ 0.75 region, where there was a demand response.
The increases observed later led to a return of the MATIC exchange rate above USD 0.85. However, considering the currently observed supply pressure, it seems highly probable that the market will return to this support in the near future. The other trend will, in turn, depend on the market reaction.
The emergence of a demand response around USD 0.85, signalling a potential rejection of this support, could lead to another upward rebound and an increase towards USD 1.03. If, however, there is no demand reaction indicating its rejection in the area of the closest support, the MATIC exchange rate will drop below this price level, then further depreciation to the area of USD 0.61, USD 0.45, or down to $ 0.32.
It is worth noting here that the technical analysis does not predict reactions that may appear around specific levels. It only shows what can happen when the market bounces back or leads to a significant breakthrough.
Taking this into account, it is worth being patient in the near future and carefully observing the situation’s development while waiting for specific indications from the market close to USD 0.85. A trader should react to price changes, not predict them.
Let our analysis be complemented by a reminder of the correlation of the cryptocurrency market, for which Bitcoin is the best driver. So if the leading cryptocurrency may experience supply pressure in the near future, the wishful approach would be to forecast a spectacular bull market on the MATIC quotes in the near future.
We could also expect a continuation of the downward movement on the Avalanche stock market. The price of this cryptocurrency has plunged from August highs by over 40%, recently defeating technical support of $ 20.50.
Over the past week, this level has been tested below (as a resistance), and supply pressure has reappeared around it. There are many indications that this zone will soon be rejected, which could drive a further depreciation towards USD 16.00 or even USD 14.50.
Looking at the XRP quotations, we will notice that the price of this cryptocurrency has remained within a parallel growth channel since mid-June this year. After rebounding from the upper limit of this system at the end of July this year, the XRP rate stuck in a horizontal trend just below the local resistance of USD 0.39.
The supply pressure observed on August 18 and 19 contributed to breaking the bottom out of this system. Moments later, the upward trend line was also broken, which was the lower boundary of the entire growth channel.
The sell-off then stopped around $ 0.3340 technical support, where there was a slight demand response on August 20 this year. However, the subsequent rebound only contributed to a re-test of the upward trend line and the previously defeated support (now resistance) of $ 0.36, which was the lower limit of the earlier consolidation.
In reaction to the hawkish speech of the Fed chairman last week, the XRP rate rebounded from this resistance and fell below the support of USD 0.3340.
For over a week, the quotes of this cryptocurrency have been consolidating slightly below the recently defeated support (now resistance), where supply reactions have already been seen several times. If this level is rejected in the near future, the XRP rate could slide to $ 0.30.
We could also expect a continuation of declines in the Nem cryptocurrency quotes. Its rate has recently been stuck in a relatively narrow consolidation, a form of market rebound after earlier declines.
Suppose it is confirmed that this is only a temporary correction and the XEM rate breaks down from it, slipping below USD 0.043. In that case, we can expect further depreciation to the region of May, June and July lows, i.e. to the technical support of USD 0.037.